Independent weekly overlay

Positioning, Leverage & Unwind

As of Nov 6, 2026 ET Weekly close-to-close review

Overlay data READY
Method

Positioning, Leverage & Unwind Overlay

A weekly descriptive layer that separates price-implied crowding, observable leverage proxies, unwind evidence and contagion scope. It does not modify the core Risk Appetite or regime model.

  • Crowding uses concentration, breadth, equal-weight diffusion and down-day correlation evidence from the existing weekly structure model.
  • Leverage vulnerability uses only observable public proxies such as bounded options snapshots, leveraged ETF behavior, CFTC positions and FINRA margin statistics.
  • Free SEC Form N-PORT net assets for TQQQ, SQQQ, SOXL and SOXS are displayed as delayed shadow context and do not affect the current risk state.
  • Unwind requires agreement across multiple price, breadth, correlation, volatility and drawdown domains; broad contagion also requires non-AI market confirmation.
  • Each source retains its as-of date, availability time and natural reporting lag inside the evidence table.

Open interest does not reveal holder direction, and delayed N-PORT fund size does not reveal current AUM or actual rebalance flow. The overlay is research context, not a forecast or trading instruction.

Price-implied crowdingHigh3/4 domains support risk
Observable leverageElevated4 independent domains observed
Unwind evidenceLocal Confirmed4/5 domains confirm pressure
Contagion scopeAi Local0 broad-market confirmations
Free fund-size contextShadow4/4 SEC N-PORT funds observed · signal withheld

Evidence ledger

Supporting evidence and counter-evidence available by the weekly cutoff

Overlay method 0.2.0
DomainMetricReadingRoleObservationSource
ConcentrationSection Leader Contribution Percentile11.5%counter2026-11-06core_weekly_features
BreadthSection Median Positive 21d Share13.4%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
DiffusionSection Median Equal Minus Value Weight 21d-6.1%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
CorrelationSection Down Day Correlation Percentile91.0%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
Leveraged EtfTqqq Realized Leverage 5d3.20counter2026-11-06marketdata.app
Leveraged EtfSoxl Realized Leverage 5d3.69counter2026-11-06marketdata.app
OptionsOptions 0 7d Open Interest Share48.8%counter2026-10-30marketdata.app
CftcCftc Leveraged Funds Gross Share50.5%support2026-10-13CFTC Traders in Financial Futures
FinraFinra Net Margin Balance Mom0.0%counter2026-09-30FINRA Margin Statistics
Fund SizeTqqq Net Assets$36.11Bshadow2026-08-31SEC Form N-PORT
Fund SizeSqqq Net Assets$1.94Bshadow2026-08-31SEC Form N-PORT
Fund SizeSoxl Net Assets$19.44Bshadow2026-07-31SEC Form N-PORT
Fund SizeSoxs Net Assets$1.61Bshadow2026-07-31SEC Form N-PORT
Price DamageSection Median Return 21d-22.4%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
Breadth CollapseSection Median Breadth Change 4w-54.7%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
Correlated SellingSection Down Day Correlation Percentile91.0%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
VolatilitySection Realized Volatility Percentile74.4%counter2026-11-06core_weekly_features
DrawdownSection Worst Drawdown 63d-45.8%support2026-11-06core_weekly_features
Ai LocalSmh 5d Return-10.8%support2026-11-06marketdata.app
TechnologyQqq 5d Return-4.8%counter2026-11-06marketdata.app
Broad MarketSpy 5d Return-2.5%counter2026-11-06marketdata.app
Broad MarketRsp 5d Return-1.0%counter2026-11-06marketdata.app
Broad MarketIwm 5d Return-2.0%counter2026-11-06marketdata.app

Coverage and missing domains

Low-frequency sources remain visible as stale or missing; they are never silently carried forward.

Observed leverage domains4
Missing leverage domains0
Shadow context domains1
Missing evidence records0
Update cadenceWeekly

Missing: None

Interpretation discipline

The four outputs answer different questions and are not collapsed into one opaque score.

CrowdingExit fragility
LeverageObservable proxies
UnwindPressure confirmation
ContagionScope of stress

Method limits

  • This weekly overlay is descriptive research, not a trading instruction or forecast.
  • Options open interest does not identify holder direction or dealer positioning.
  • Free fund-size observations use delayed SEC Form N-PORT net assets and remain shadow evidence; they do not estimate current AUM or actual rebalance flow.
  • FINRA and CFTC observations are lower-frequency and retain their disclosed data age.
  • No portfolio, account, identity or other personal information is collected or used.