Breadth & Rotation · AI Market State

Rotation evidence gate not met

AI Software and Cloud & AI Platform pass the current Small/Large and score-coverage gates, but do not yet have the minimum 52 valid weekly observations required to form the causal 63-session Small-minus-Large extension percentile. Their Rotation scores are withheld. Breadth, concentration, volatility and drawdown remain available under their own gates.

How to read

Small-Cap Rotation Readiness

This page separates broad participation from leader-driven performance and checks whether smaller Section constituents are gaining relative participation. It remains useful for market-structure diagnosis even when the Rotation score is withheld.

Weights: 15% State, 35% Transition, 35% Breadth and 15% Fragility Health.
A 10-point penalty applies when 63-session Small-minus-Large performance is above its causal 90th percentile.
The evidence gate requires valid 21- and 63-session Small/Large legs, at least five valid securities on each side, at least 80% composite data coverage and at least 52 valid weekly observations for the causal extension percentile.
Positive 21D, leader concentration, 63D volatility and drawdown remain interpretable when Rotation is withheld because they have their own validity gates.

Passing the calculation gate means the inputs are sufficient; it does not mean the signal has passed prospective forecasting validation. Rotation remains RESEARCH_ONLY.

Current breadth diagnostics

Column guide

Breadth and Fragility Columns

A cross-Section comparison of small-cap rotation evidence, participation, concentration and realized downside risk.

Rotation: structural readiness score; Withheld means at least one pre-registered calculation-evidence gate failed.
Positive 21D: share of constituents with a positive 21-session return.
Leader concentration: top-three absolute return contributions divided by total absolute contributions; higher is more concentrated.
63D volatility: annualized realized volatility using 252 trading sessions.
63D drawdown: worst peak-to-trough decline in the window; more negative is worse.
Use the page to distinguish healthy diffusion from a headline index move driven by a narrow group of leaders.

The page is a current market-structure monitor. It does not establish that smaller stocks will outperform over a future horizon.

Section	Rotation	Positive 21D	Leader concentration	63D volatility	63D drawdown
AI Infrastructure	36.0	55%	25%	83.2%	-27.1%
AI Software	Withheld	47%	39%	67.2%	-27.6%
Cloud & AI Platform	Withheld	45%	62%	64.4%	-26.4%
Semiconductor	33.3	43%	14%	83.0%	-25.4%