Section research
Semiconductor
As of 2026-07-10 ET · 63 effective names
Definition
State
Measures how strong the group is now. Higher values mean the current trend and relative position rank more favorably versus the same group’s causal history.
- Trend subgroup: 21-, 63- and 126-session returns plus multi-window trend consistency.
- Relative subgroup: 21-session performance versus SPY, QQQ and the Section benchmark.
- Position subgroup: shares above the 50- and 200-session moving averages plus distance from the 252-session high.
- Features are causal-percentile normalized, averaged inside each subgroup, then the available subgroups are equally combined.
Definition
Transition
Measures whether the group’s internal state is improving or deteriorating. Higher values mean improvement is occurring more rapidly relative to its own history.
- Momentum subgroup: change in the 21-session return versus one and four weeks earlier.
- Breadth subgroup: one- and four-week breadth change plus the share newly moving above the 50- and 200-session averages.
- Risk subgroup: four-week change in 63-session realized volatility; declining volatility scores more favorably.
- Features are causal-percentile normalized before subgroup and dimension aggregation.
Definition
Breadth
Measures how widely performance is distributed across constituents and whether participation is diffusing beyond the largest leaders.
- Participation subgroup: shares with positive 21-session returns and shares outperforming the Section benchmark.
- Diffusion subgroup: equal-weight minus value-weight performance and Small-minus-Large performance.
- Higher means broader participation and stronger diffusion toward smaller constituents.
- Market-cap-dependent features are withheld when point-in-time market-cap evidence is insufficient; coverage records the resulting evidence gap.
Definition
Fragility Health
An inverted structural-risk dimension built from volatility, drawdown, downside behavior, correlation and concentration.
- Volatility subgroup: 21- and 63-session realized volatility plus 63-session downside semivariance.
- Drawdown subgroup: 63- and 126-session maximum drawdown.
- Tail subgroup: 63-session return skew and average correlation on down-market days.
- Concentration subgroup: top-three absolute return contribution and return-contribution HHI.
- Adverse metrics are direction-inverted before aggregation, so higher means healthier structure and lower measured fragility.
A high value means Fragility Health is high; it does not mean fragility itself is high. The dimension is descriptive and does not eliminate tail risk.
Causal weekly score
Risk appetite history
How to read
Historical Risk Appetite
Each line shows the causal weekly Risk Appetite Score for one Section or Basket. The x-axis is the ET weekly session and the y-axis runs from 0 to 100.
- Rising values indicate improving market structure; falling values indicate deterioration.
- Hover over the chart to compare values recorded at the same weekly session.
The five-year view is a current-universe retrospective and retains disclosed survivorship and taxonomy look-ahead limitations.
Constituent groups
Basket state
Column guide
Basket State Table
Compares the latest market-state result across the constituent Baskets inside a Section. Each Basket is calculated independently using the same four-dimensional process as a Section.
- Approved Basket members with an active security series and at least 63 observations form the effective sample; a Basket needs at least five effective names to publish a score.
- Raw group features are first aggregated across eligible Basket members, then normalized against that Basket’s own causal weekly history.
- Score = 30% State + 25% Transition + 25% Breadth + 20% Fragility Health. It is not the average of individual-stock scores.
- Regime is the nearest fixed four-dimensional prototype; Effective N is the eligible current sample; 21D return is the Basket’s split-adjusted price return.
Small Baskets can be more sensitive to a few companies. Effective N and data coverage should be reviewed together with the score.
| Basket | Score | Regime | Effective N | 21D return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| semi analog edge | 46.7 | Late/Crowded | 19 | -3.1% |
| semi compute accelerator | — | Unavailable | 4 | 3.1% |
| semi custom silicon | — | Unavailable | 2 | -4.7% |
| semi eda ip | 34.9 | Risk Contraction | 5 | -4.9% |
| semi equipment materials | 36.1 | Late/Crowded / Mixed | 11 | 1.8% |
| semi foundry idm | 43.3 | Late/Crowded | 11 | -0.6% |
| semi memory hbm | — | Unavailable | 4 | 6.4% |
| semi networking interconnect | 42.2 | Late/Crowded / Mixed | 5 | 1.5% |
| semi packaging test | 31.1 | Late/Crowded / Mixed | 5 | 3.8% |