Context, not score input

Macro & Risk Overlay

Latest available observations as of 2026-07-10 ET

How to read

Macro & Risk Overlay

A contextual panel for distinguishing industry-specific market structure from broader volatility, rates, credit, dollar and financial-condition forces.

Direction is not uniformly bullish or bearish. Rates and the dollar must be interpreted jointly with growth, inflation and risk conditions.

VIX
Definition

VIX

CBOE’s index of near-term S&P 500 option-implied volatility. The displayed value is an index level.

  • Higher values generally indicate greater expected market volatility.
15.0321-observation change -4.41 ptsLatest observation 2026-07-10
2Y Treasury
Definition

2Y Treasury Yield

The U.S. two-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, displayed in percent.

  • It is sensitive to expected monetary-policy conditions.
4.16%21-observation change +0.01 ppLatest observation 2026-07-09
10Y Treasury
Definition

10Y Treasury Yield

The U.S. ten-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, displayed in percent.

  • It combines expected policy rates, inflation and term-premium effects.
4.54%21-observation change -0.02 ppLatest observation 2026-07-09
10Y real yield
Definition

10Y Real Yield

The ten-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield, displayed in percent.

  • Higher real discount rates can pressure long-duration equity valuations, all else equal.
2.31%21-observation change +0.10 ppLatest observation 2026-07-09
10Y–2Y spread
Definition

10Y–2Y Term Spread

The ten-year Treasury yield minus the two-year yield, displayed in percentage points.

  • Negative values indicate an inverted 10Y–2Y curve.
0.38 ppDerived from the latest 10Y and 2Y observations
High-yield OAS
Definition

High-Yield OAS

The option-adjusted spread on U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, displayed in percentage points.

  • Wider spreads generally indicate tighter credit conditions and higher perceived credit risk.
2.69%21-observation change -0.09 ppLatest observation 2026-07-10
NFCI
Definition

National Financial Conditions Index

The Chicago Fed index of U.S. financial conditions relative to historical averages.

  • Positive values are tighter than average; negative values are looser than average.
-0.51521-observation change +0.048Latest observation 2026-07-03
Broad dollar
Definition

Broad Dollar Index

The Federal Reserve’s trade-weighted broad U.S. dollar index.

  • A rising level indicates broad dollar appreciation.
120.6921-observation change +1.65 ptsLatest observation 2026-07-02

Interpretation boundary

Macro variables help distinguish industry-specific weakness from broader rates, credit, volatility and dollar conditions. They do not modify the industry Risk Appetite score in method 1.1.5.